Macroeconomic Determinants of Vietnam’s Inflation 2000-2010: Evidence and Analysis

Contents Policy Research Note . 5Introduction . 10Overview of Vietnamese Economy and Inflation Dynamics, 2000-2010 . 11Overview of Vietnam’s economy . 11Vietnam’s inflation dynamics with key changes in policy and economic environment . 20Literature Review on Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation . 27International Research . 27Previous Studies on Vietnam’s Inflation . 32Analysis of Key Macroeconomic Determinants of Vietnam’s Inflation . 35The model . 35Data . 40Conventional data series . 40 Less conventional data . 42 Tests . 43Unit-root Tests . 43 Cointegration Tests . 43 Results of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) . 44The base line model . 44 The extended model . 46 Variance decomposition . 47 Impulse Response Functions . 48 Policy Discussion and Concluding Remarks . 48Policy discus . 48Concluding remarks . 51References . 53Appendices . 5

Contents

Policy Research Note . 5

Introduction . 10

Overview of Vietnamese Economy and Inflation Dynamics, 2000-2010 . 11

Overview of Vietnam’s economy . 11

Vietnam’s inflation dynamics with key changes in policy and economic environment . 20

Literature Review on Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation . 27

International Research . 27

Previous Studies on Vietnam’s Inflation . 32

Analysis of Key Macroeconomic Determinants of Vietnam’s Inflation . 35

The model . 35

Data . 40

Conventional data series . 40

Less conventional data . 42

Tests . 43

Unit-root Tests . 43

Cointegration Tests . 43

Results of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) . 44

The base line model . 44

The extended model . 46

Variance decomposition . 47

Impulse Response Functions . 48

Policy Discussion and Concluding Remarks . 48

Policy discus . 48

Concluding remarks . 51

References . 53

Appendices . 5

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