Luận văn A methodology for validation of integrated systems models with an application to coastal-zone management in south-west sulawesi

Contents Preface . 1. Introduction . . . 1.1. General introduction . . 1.2. Background . . 1.2.1. Systems approach . 1.2.2. Integrated approach and Integrated Assessment 1.2.3. Integrated management and policy analysis . . 1.3. The problem of validating Integrated Systems Models . 1.4. Research aim and research questions . 1.5. Case study description 1.5.1. RaMCo . 1.5.2. Study area . 1.6. Outline of the thesis 2. Methodology . . . . 2.1. Introduction. . 2.2. Literature review . 2.3. Concept definition. . 2.4. Conceptual framework of analysis . 2.5. Procedure for validation . 2.6. Conclusion . 3. Validation of an integrated systems model for coastal-zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses . 3.1. Introduction. . 3.2. Methodology . . 3.2.1. Basics for the method 3.2.2. The testing procedure 3.2.3. The sensitivity analysis . 3.2.4. The elicitation of expert opinions . 3.2.5. The uncertainty propagation . 3.2.6. The validation tests 3.3. Results . 3.3.1. Sensitivity analysis . 3.3.2. Elicitation of expert opinions . Contents 8 3.3.3. Uncertainty analysis . 3.3.4. Parameter-Verification test . 3.3.5. Behaviour-Anomaly test . 3.3.6. Policy-Sensitivity test . 3.4. Discussion and conclusions . 3.5. Appendices . 4. A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using qualitative scenarios . 4.1. Introduction . . 4.2. Validation methodology. . . 4.2.1. Overview of the new approach . 4.2.2. The detail procedure . 4.3. The RaMCo model . 4.3.1. Land-use/land-cover change model 4.3.2. Soil loss computation . 4.3.3. Sediment yield 4.4. Formulation of scenarios for testing 4.4.1. Structuring scenarios . 4.4.2. Developing qualitative scenarios for testing . 4.5. Translation of qualitative scenarios . 4.5.1. Fuzzification . 4.5.2. Formulation of inference rules . 4.5.3. Application of the inference rules . 4.5.4. Calculation of the output value . 4.5.5. Testing the consistency of the scenarios 4.6. Results . 4.7. Discussion and conclusions 5. Validation of a fisheries model for coastal-zone management in Spermonde Archipelago using observed data . 5.1. Introduction . . 5.2. Case study. . . . 5.2.1. Fisheries in the Spermonde Archipelago, Southwest Sulawesi . 5.2.2. Fisheries modelling in RaMCo . 5.2.3. Data source and data processing . 5.3. Validation methodology . 5.3.1. Sate of the art . 5.3.2. The proposed method . 5.3.3. Fishery production models . 5.4. Results . 5.4.1. Calibration . 5.4.2. The pattern test . 5.4.3. The accuracy test . 5.4.4. The extreme condition test . 5.5. Discussion and conclusions . Contents 96. Discussions, conclusions and recommendations .6.1. Introduction . . 6.2. Discussions. . . . 6.2.1. Innovative aspects . . . 6.2.2. Generic applicability of the methodology . 6.2.3. Limitations . 6.3. Conclusions . 6.3.1. Concept definition . 6.3.2. Methodology . 6.4. Recommendations . 6.4.1. Other directions for the validation of integrated systems models . 6.4.2. Proper use of integrated systems models . References .Symbols Acronyms and abbreviations . Summary .Samenvatting .About the author .

Contents

Preface .

1. Introduction . . .

1.1. General introduction . .

1.2. Background . .

1.2.1. Systems approach .

1.2.2. Integrated approach and Integrated Assessment

1.2.3. Integrated management and policy analysis . .

1.3. The problem of validating Integrated Systems Models .

1.4. Research aim and research questions .

1.5. Case study description

1.5.1. RaMCo .

1.5.2. Study area .

1.6. Outline of the thesis

2. Methodology . . . .

2.1. Introduction. .

2.2. Literature review .

2.3. Concept definition. .

2.4. Conceptual framework of analysis .

2.5. Procedure for validation .

2.6. Conclusion .

3. Validation of an integrated systems model for coastal-zone management

using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses .

3.1. Introduction. .

3.2. Methodology . .

3.2.1. Basics for the method

3.2.2. The testing procedure

3.2.3. The sensitivity analysis .

3.2.4. The elicitation of expert opinions .

3.2.5. The uncertainty propagation .

3.2.6. The validation tests

3.3. Results .

3.3.1. Sensitivity analysis .

3.3.2. Elicitation of expert opinions .

Contents 8

3.3.3. Uncertainty analysis .

3.3.4. Parameter-Verification test .

3.3.5. Behaviour-Anomaly test .

3.3.6. Policy-Sensitivity test .

3.4. Discussion and conclusions .

3.5. Appendices .

4. A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using

qualitative scenarios .

4.1. Introduction . .

4.2. Validation methodology. . .

4.2.1. Overview of the new approach .

4.2.2. The detail procedure .

4.3. The RaMCo model .

4.3.1. Land-use/land-cover change model

4.3.2. Soil loss computation .

4.3.3. Sediment yield

4.4. Formulation of scenarios for testing

4.4.1. Structuring scenarios .

4.4.2. Developing qualitative scenarios for testing .

4.5. Translation of qualitative scenarios .

4.5.1. Fuzzification .

4.5.2. Formulation of inference rules .

4.5.3. Application of the inference rules .

4.5.4. Calculation of the output value .

4.5.5. Testing the consistency of the scenarios

4.6. Results .

4.7. Discussion and conclusions

5. Validation of a fisheries model for coastal-zone management in

Spermonde Archipelago using observed data .

5.1. Introduction . .

5.2. Case study. . . .

5.2.1. Fisheries in the Spermonde Archipelago, Southwest Sulawesi .

5.2.2. Fisheries modelling in RaMCo .

5.2.3. Data source and data processing .

5.3. Validation methodology .

5.3.1. Sate of the art .

5.3.2. The proposed method .

5.3.3. Fishery production models .

5.4. Results .

5.4.1. Calibration .

5.4.2. The pattern test .

5.4.3. The accuracy test .

5.4.4. The extreme condition test .

5.5. Discussion and conclusions .

Contents 9

6. Discussions, conclusions and recommendations .

6.1. Introduction . .

6.2. Discussions. . . .

6.2.1. Innovative aspects . . .

6.2.2. Generic applicability of the methodology .

6.2.3. Limitations .

6.3. Conclusions .

6.3.1. Concept definition .

6.3.2. Methodology .

6.4. Recommendations .

6.4.1. Other directions for the validation of integrated systems models .

6.4.2. Proper use of integrated systems models .

References .

Symbols

Acronyms and abbreviations .

Summary .

Samenvatting .

About the author .